Global Climate Change and Conflicts in the International System.

Effects of climate change are likely to lead to rebellion, revolution, civil war or the breakdown of States. The societal consequences of climate change effects could exacerbate existing social and political tendencies to conflict. Climate change has attributed to a number of conflicts in the international community. Few among these are the Darfur armed conflict, the civil war in Syria and the Somalia conflict.

In the case of Darfur, the present armed conflict was partly as a result of drought. Drought led to pressure on the ever increasing populations. This pressure led to social and resource based conflicts within Darfur which have continued to escalate to date. Minimal water access was an end result of drought in Darfur. For this reason, the Baggara nomads had to take their livestocks further South, to land mainly occupied by non-Arabs farming communities in search for water. This led to outbreak of conflict between the two.

In the case of Syria, anthropogenic emissions were a contributory factor to the severe late 2000s drought experienced in the country. This drought led to large scale internal migration. The internal migrants in Syria were an important contributory factor in the 2011 unrest which spiraled into Syria’s civil war.

Lastly, in the case of Somalia, over the past decade, climate-change related desertification has increased in the country. This has greatly increased the vulnerability of the local population. Climate change feeds armed conflicts in Somalia by exacerbating tensions between clans, boosting the ranks and the role of terrorist groups and increasing migratory flows. For instance, climate change sharpens disputes over already scarce resources between warlords. While Al-shabaab has conquered large pieces of the country’s territory, clan elders still wield considerable power, dominating the political systems. In this sence, the severe droughts cause disruption to water access, high rates of malnutrition, disease outbreaks and food insecurity. This leads yo tension and even disputes between the clans.

~ Nyapela Javan